The Chicago Bears welcome the Baltimore Ravens to town in Week 11 as consensus 6.5-point underdogs.
The Bears are coming off of a bye week, while the Ravens suffered an uncharacteristic loss to the lowly Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson played his worst game of the season, and he’ll be eager to show that performance was a fluke when he hits the Soldier Field grass.
In their last game, the Bears lost by two to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Justin Fields was good, and pretty much everything else about the game was bad. Including the referees.
Chicago is 1-2 against the AFC North this season, and the Ravens will complete the divisional round-robin.
Here are the best odds at online sportsbooks in Illinois.
Bears vs. Ravens odds at Illinois sportsbooks
Check out the full Bears odds:
The Bears are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Even though Fields is improving, the defense is sharply declining.
And for 2021 betting purposes, the defense is extremely important to the Bears’ success. In their last three outings, that unit is allowing an average of 33.3 points per game.
The Ravens, despite a woeful offensive showing against Miami, have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They are third in rushing, sixth in passing and third in total yards.
Chicago also hasn’t faced a quarterback comparable to Jackson all season. The fastest QB the Bears’ defense regularly sees is Fields in practice, and we’ll see if that has any effect on game preparation.
The near-touchdown spread makes sense, but the Bears are capable of covering. In a similar spot against Pittsburgh, Chicago covered the spread.
Is the Bears vs. Ravens spread too high?
It comes down to Justin Fields
Fields graded out as the best quarterback in the league in Week 9 for his performance against the Steelers, per Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t enough to lead the Bears to victory, but he was enough to cash Chicago spread tickets.
And the Ravens are not great defensively. They are 24th in the league in yards allowed despite usually winning the time of possession; they are 30th in opposing yards per play.
In other words, if Fields and the Bears’ offense build on their upward trajectory from their past few games, there will be opportunities to score points.
And generally speaking, Chicago is better at home. Two of the Bears’ three wins have come at Soldier Field, and those very ugly performances — the Buccaneers and Browns games come to mind — were on the road.
The Ravens, for what it’s worth, are 2-2 on the road and 4-1 at home. Like a lot of good teams, they have been excellent at home and mediocre on the road.
The spread opened at six and hasn’t budged much at all, though always keep an eye on line movement throughout the week.
Checking in on Bears’ win total odds
Coming into the 2021 season, the Bears closed with an over/under of 7.5 wins at most Illinois mobile sportsbooks. And remember, there are 17 regular season NFL games this year instead of 16.
In order for the over to hit, the Bears need to go at least 5-3 over final eight games. Here is their remaining schedule:
- vs. Ravens
- @ Lions
- vs. Cardinals
- @ Packers
- vs. Vikings
- @ Seahawks
- vs. Giants
- @ Vikings
At first glance, the Bears will likely only be favored against the Lions and Giants. Obviously, things can change on a weekly basis, but Chicago has faced a tough schedule to date and it doesn’t get any easier.
Chicago may not be favored against Baltimore, but it’s a winnable game. The Dolphins just beat the Ravens, after all.
It’s a must-win game for Matt Nagy and the Bears’ coaching staff, and it’s a must-win game for Bears season-long ‘over’ bettors.