Although the acquisition of Nick Foles didn’t do much for the Chicago Bears’ Super Bowl futures, Foles is near the top of a betting market on his own. One popular sportsbook has him as an NFL Comeback Player of the Year contender.
William Hill, which has yet to begin operations in Illinois, has a market live for that award. Foles isn’t the favorite, but he’s far from a long shot as well.
Nick Foles among William Hill’s Comeback Award contenders
William Hill Sportsbook, which offers legal retail wagering at four locations in Iowa, hasn’t secured a market access deal in IL yet. Regardless, that may be on the horizon at some point.
The current field for the NFL’s next Comeback Player of the Year award features Chicago’s newest signal-caller. Only six players have shorter odds than Foles at 16/1 (+1600) in that market right now. At the end of April, that contingent was:
- Rob Gronkowski +300
- Ben Roethlisberger +350
- JJ Watt +600
- Matthew Stafford +700
- AJ Green +800
- Cam Newton +1000
There’s some precedent in Foles’ favor. The last two Comeback Player of the Year award recipients — Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill — both played the same position as Foles.
As a matter of fact, six of the past 10 winners played quarterback. From 2008-2013, all of the award recipients were quarterbacks.
Of course, there are several other quarterbacks in the field. Amassing more votes than the rest of the field will greatly depend on Foles’ ability not only to put up stats but help the Bears win as well.
For bettors, however, the real question is whether now is the time to strike on this market. That depends on whether you believe the lines will move away from or toward Foles in the coming months.
Could +1600 on Foles be as good as it’s going to get?
There are a few elements that would naturally shorten this line. Should one of the six players in front of Foles in this market suffer a significant injury, it could improve Foles’ chances.
The same goes if Foles and Chicago have an impressive preseason and beginning to the regular season. The opposite of these factors is true as well, of course.
If Foles suffers an injury or the Bears struggle, the odds on Foles will lengthen here. At this point, handicapping this race requires making a few hypotheses.
There is some empirical information of some value right now as well, however. Chicago’s new quarterbacks’ coach John DeFilippo worked with Foles in Jacksonville and Philadelphia, for one thing.
That stretch included winning a Super Bowl in 2017. Foles had a stellar postseason run working with DeFilippo that year, compiling a QB rating of 115.7 while averaging over 300 yards passing per game.
At the same time, the Bears haven’t done much to upgrade an offense that ranked 28th in scoring last season outside of trade for Foles. That may actually work in Foles’ favor in this regard, however.
If Foles can improve the offensive output and lead Chicago to a winning record, the narrative will be that his play made all the difference. That may be enough to earn him this award.
Most of the indicators point toward that +1600 line only getting shorter from here. For those considering Foles on this market, now may very well be the time to act.
