The 3-0 (!) Chicago Bears host the Indianapolis Colts at Soldier Field on Sunday.
Colts at Bears odds
|TB Buccaneers||-3.5, 44.5||-3.5, 44.5||-3.5, 44||-3.5, 44.5||-3.5, 44.5|
|CHI Bears||+3.5, 44.5||+3.5, 44||+3.5, 44||+3.5, 44.5||+3.5, 44.5|
As expected, Nick Foles is the Bears starting quarterback going forward after he led a miracle Week 3 comeback against the Falcons.
He went 16-for-29 with three touchdown passes and one interception against Atlanta. Foles easily could have had five touchdowns in one half, but the refs overruled would-be touchdown catches by Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller.
The Robinson call, in particular, was questionable.
With that said, the Bears are an incredibly unlikely 3-0 team that could just as easily be 0-3.
They rallied against the Lions and Falcons to come back from big fourth-quarter deficits and came a play away from blowing a 17-0 lead against the Giants.
The Bears opponents’ combined record is 1-8 this season.
Tarik Cohen tore his ACL against the Falcons, a tough loss for a Bears offense that values his speed. But other than Cohen, Chicago is reasonably healthy. And in an NFL season flush with injuries, there’s value in that in itself.
The Bears’ defense was a mixed bag on Sunday. Khalil Mack looked like Khalil Mack, producing a 92.1 pass–rush grade at Pro Football Focus.
That mark led all NFL defenders. But the Chicago run defense continues to miss nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Atlanta ran the ball for 144 yards on 25 attempts Sunday, good for 5.8 yards per carry. The Bears have a stingy secondary by 2020 NFL standards, but the run defense is an issue.
Bottom line: The Chicago Bears are a tough team to handicap in Week 4.
Foles has played one half in Chicago, and he shined. But the performance came against a decimated Falcons defense that wasn’t all that good at the start and didn’t prepare for him.
What to know about the Colts
The Colts will present the Bears’ toughest challenge yet, which is why they are favored at every book.
Indy has long been thought of as a well-oiled offensive machine, and that unit is coming along.
But the defense has been the more noteworthy group through three weeks.
The Colts allow just 225 yards per game, tops in the league by a mile (the Steelers are second at 290 yards per game).
Granted, the Colts just beefed up their stats against the lowly Jets. But they have playmakers, and are a far cry from what the Bears have seen in the first three weeks.
Indianapolis also ranks first in scoring defense at 15 points per game.
The Colts’ offense, on the other hand, has been hit-or-miss. Philip Rivers has had nice outings against the Jets and Vikings, both 0-3, but struggled in a Week 1 loss to the Jaguars.
Keep an eye on rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, who is poised for a big day sans Marlon Mack. Taylor is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the year, but the Bears’ run defense is exploitable.
All of this said, while the Bears have faced poor competition through three weeks, the Colts have as well.
Indianapolis’ one win came against the Jaguars, who are 1-2. The Jets and Vikings are 0-3, so its combined opponent record is also 1-8.
The eye test suggests the Colts are better, considering their +39 point differential (the Bears are only +12 despite being undefeated).
But this has the feel of a tough game to peg for sportsbooks.
Best IL sportsbook NFL offers
BetRivers is offering a 50% profit boost on NFL Sundays. So if you’re inclined to bet on Bears vs. Colts, that’s a good place to look.
New users at DraftKings can bet $1 to win $100 on any team to win (moneyline). There are likely better plays on the board for that one, but Chicago-Indy is an option.
Lastly, PointsBet is now the official betting partner of the Bears. It doesn’t have any Bears promos listed yet, but there’s a good chance it will in the next few days based on what we’ve seen in the opening weeks.